erious over the years, my weekend role has turned into that of a chauffeur, while my interest has evolved into analyzing the finer technical and tactical points of the game. Coincidentally, this is also the period when data-driven methods became mainstream in the analysis of team sports. Somewhat late to this trend, soccer is busy catching up with it as well. [Aside: Some of the excellent soccer sites with this flavor include Jonathan Wilson's articles on The Guardian, Tim Hill's Blog, Bob Evans' blog on refereeing, The Guardian's Chalkboards, the occasional analytical article on NYT's Goal blog, etc.]
That was a long pre-amble. This post is my analysis of the defeat of the US Men's National Team at the hands of (feet of?) Mexico in the final match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup in front of a largely pro-Mexican crowd of over 90,000 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. The popular soccer press and the blogosphere are rife with knee-jerk reactions lambasting defender Jonathan Bernstein, calling for a replacement to coach Bob Bradley, and even questioning the credibility of USSF President Sunil Gulati. In this post, I will attempt to portray with evidence what went wrong with the US defense, and how the US allowed the Mexicans to score four goals after leading the game 2-0 a mere 23 minutes into the game.
I am not saying that Bornstein had a great game or that Bradley's tactical choices were masterful; I am merely pointing out that blaming the last defender or the positional counterpart of the goalscorer is an easy and lazy way to react to a loss. It is understandable when casual fans do this, but it pains me that two days after the final, not one soccer writer has attempted to really analyze this rather excellent soccer match from a technical perspective. Hence this humble attempt at providing such an analysis.
As far as analyses of soccer matches go, please note that this is the "easy" kind of analysis -- breaking down what happened in a 30-second span of play and explaining who was at "fault" -- as opposed to the more difficult analysis that explains what happened over the course of 90 minutes or over the course of a season why a certain player or certain team is successful. Read Tim Hill's blog for various examples of such brilliant analysis.
The analysis below uses snapshots from this YouTube video and this one of game highlights, mostly from the latter. My original analysis was conducted with DVR from HD transmission, with replays and pauses, apologies if the video snapshots don't adequately express the ideas. I am grateful to Aravind Sivakumar, with whom this analysis was conducted jointly; he is also the one who knows a thing or two about actually playing soccer on the field rather than from the armchair.
Goal #1 for Mexico: The score is 2-0 in favor of the US, Mexico has a throw-in about ten yards from the halfway line on their defensive side. A second after the throw-in, here's the picture:
Couple of seconds later, the ball is played into the center of the field:
This picture tells us several things, some of which point out what went wrong:
Chicharito, only Mexico's most dangerous player, is left unmarked in the middle of the park -- he has occupied what is often considered the "soft underbelly" of a defensive formation, the space between the holding midfielder(s) and the centerbacks. The person nearest him is Michael Bradley, who is actually not goal-side of him, but is more or less marking the referee. The other holding midfielder, Jermaine Jones, is on the attacking side of the halfway line. The centerbacks have Gio Dos Santos covered, and Bornstein is loosely marking Barrera, the eventual goalscorer. A fundamental rule of defending in soccer is that at any transition, the midfielders, especially the defensive ones, get goal-side of the player in their zone. Jones and Bradley failed to do this. Admittedly, Chicharito is a forward, and thus nominally the responsibility of the centerbacks; and admittedly, Jones has the two central midfielders in front of him. That brings me to my next point: the goalkeeper and the centerbacks, who are the ones responsible for organizing the defense, completely failed in their jobs -- either to get one of the midfielders to drop and mark Chicharito, or to have one of the centerbacks step up so as not to allow him space and time. It appears that Bocanegra and Goodson, the centerbacks, had pushed up enough to keep Dos Santos offside at this moment.
The next picture shows that Bradley caught up to Chicharito a second later, but not before he could play the killer pass to Barrera; as this picture illustrates, by this time, Goodson starts running back, and keeps Dos Santos onside, not that it matters. Captain Bocanegra is more or less ball-watching, instead of providing cover for Goodson and Bornstein, or heading in the direction of the space between himself and Bornstein/Barrera, the most likely place for Chicharito to play the through ball.
At this point, it was a hopeless cause for the US defense. Chicharito carved the space between Bocanegra and Bornstein nearly right in the middle with a well-weightd ball, and Barrera completed a lovely goal. Was Bornstein guilty here? Sure, he was -- he didn't stay tight on Barrera, he was on the inside as opposed to goal-side so once the ball is past him, the attacker is behind him and he has no hope of making a tackle or interception. My point, however, is that the US failed in basic defensive organization at a rather "safe" point in the game -- leading by two goals, with a transition from a throw-in in the opponent's defensive half, with plenty of time to get someone to deny Chicharito time and space. In my estimate, the "blame" for this goal is on Bradley, Bocanegra, and Bornstein, in that order, let's say 0.5 for Bradley, 0.25 each for the other two.
Goal #2 for Mexico:
It begins like this, a long ball is played from the central midfield towards the right touchline. Giovani Dos Santos is the recipient, and I can't identify the passer (Torrado or Castro). There are two US players in front of the passer -- Jermaine Jones and one more player, not sure who it is. Michael Bradley is in the central circle, and behind him is Andres Guardado, another live-wire player in the Mexican National Team.
Now Dos Santos has the ball at his feet, and is looking to dribble in:
A few points are noteworthy here: Bornstein is successful in the first and foremost aspect of defending: delaying (the other two are denying and destroying, more on that in a moment). He gets goal-side of the attacker, and is in position to proceed to the next two aspects. He has excellent cover too: Bocanegra is moving in, and Goodson is providing cover to both Bornstein and Lichaj on the other side (who has his eyes on Chicharito). Jones is making a sharp run into the box (he's near the penalty arc), and Bradley, eyes on the ball, is heading in the general direction. Between the two of them, Bradley and Jones are lacking organization: who will pick up Guardado, who is by now a few steps ahead of Bradley (and close to the referee in the picture), and whether the other attacker (Barrera?) outside the box is Jones' responsibility or Bocanegra's. Bocanegra is in a good position, able to provide cover for Bornstein, or to take this other attacker, should Dos Santos lay it off to him. The confusion continues for Bradley and Jones, though, as can be seen in the next picture, a fraction of a second before Dos Santos takes his shot:
By this point, Lichaj has done an excellent job of staying goal-side of Chicharito, and keeping him tightly marked. Jones is still confused and ball-watching, Bradley is ball-watching and scrambling in the general direction of Guardado. Dos Santos takes the shot, which Lichaj steps up and intercepts, but let's see where the rest of the cast of characters are:
Bradley still hasn't gotten goal-side of Guardado, and neither has Goodson. Jones continues his general moral support in the area, without specifically taking on any responsibility. At this point, it's over. The ball spills to Guardado, who makes no mistake. Chicharito's general soccer awareness is simply brilliant here: realizing that he's offside, and that any involvement by him would nullify what is clearly heading to be the equalizer, he not only avoids any contact with the ball, but ensures that his non-contact is perceptibly obvious.
So who's to blame for Goal #2? At this level of play, any attacker worth his salt will be able to beat a defender with one cut (as Dos Santos executes with his outside left foot to get space from Bornstein), so while Bornstein didn't successfully deny or destroy the shot, he is not entirely at fault. Bocanegra did absolutely nothing to position himself to intercept the ball, or to otherwise organize the defense. Goodson's case is even more interesting -- he was not the first line of defense against any of the attackers, and the least "occupied"; naturally, it was his job to ensure that Guardado was picked up properly either by Jones or by Bradley, and when neither did so, by himself. Bradley's defending was comical: when the lead pass was played, Guardado was a few steps behind Bradley, and Bradley had no one else to mark; yet, he failed to get goal-side of Guardado for the rest of the play. Let's chalk this one up to Bradley, Jones, Goodson, Bocanegra, and Bornstein, in that order, and respectively, for 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, and 0.1 points each. I wouldn't blame Howard for this one, though I wish he had done better.
As an interesting aside, four names you didn't see in the analysis of Goal #2 are: Donovan, Dempsey, Adu, and Bedoya, the four attacking players for the US. Normally, the US plays a solid defensive game -- the outside forwards / wingers work their tails off in tracking down and helping the fullbacks. It was stunning to see that Bornstein and Lichaj didn't get any support, especially since Lichaj was marking Chicharito in this play. It is even more painful (for the US fan, that is) when we consider that the US was leading at this point, and some basic tactical discipline was crucial. I suspect, but can't remember, that this was a counterattack, which is why Bedoya and Dempsey (the wingers/outside forwards at this point) didn't have time to drop back.
On to Goal #3:
The ball is played from the touchline to one of the central midfielders for Mexico, Adu tries to put some pressure on the player, but he's looking to make a long pass across the halfway line. You'll see Bradley near the referee, he has the other central midfielder in front of him; Bedoya appears to be the US player on the far side. Can't tell if it was a Mexico throw-in, or if Clint Dempsey (the US player on the near-side touchline) was dispossessed of the ball. In either case, it's a transition, and we see Jones not goal-side of anyone in particular, which is kinda OK especially if the US had possession a second or two earlier.